Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-10 00:00:00+00:00 58532.662217 61968.818520 65410.116232 69112.436034 72980.217657 76898.882012 81166.485346
2024-11-17 00:00:00+00:00 52770.248900 57987.243115 63363.962635 69310.748599 75695.009763 82334.342916 89752.153729
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 48571.205438 54974.008810 61723.660750 69351.488491 77713.980267 86584.841676 96688.122852
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 45518.294747 52814.996393 60653.698413 69671.647983 79729.552853 90572.180562 103113.669610
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 42872.006587 50852.519590 59569.936915 69756.440417 81288.321275 93893.497556 108667.673538
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 41229.636093 49865.847644 59438.902800 70778.660654 83783.149905 98168.748811 115221.507148
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 39150.067440 48239.518654 58456.582759 70716.004628 84946.850491 100865.437324 119934.516511
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 37979.972264 47585.004877 58517.122602 71785.366391 87353.186071 104938.500727 126198.218098
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 36734.062880 46764.164682 58316.602417 72490.455033 89289.633418 108440.758624 131792.475261
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 35222.940811 45550.193385 57584.424061 72506.293889 90366.237128 110907.845677 136162.069247
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 33769.630623 44339.515282 56795.825977 72398.479225 91248.786317 113112.757573 140202.910757
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 32957.281000 43872.929502 56868.111346 73294.802683 93307.481152 116694.402051 145872.550144
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 32082.582386 43304.778007 56801.903607 74019.167091 95170.368701 120072.115340 151352.949880
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 31085.878492 42544.860900 56467.590069 74388.893035 96586.729821 122912.375949 156203.792948
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 30012.504557 41645.543478 55922.897681 74465.160843 97618.352951 125274.055850 160476.317398
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 29133.009606 40960.283334 55615.937634 74810.904814 98962.456767 128005.255952 165199.757833
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 28190.140364 40157.587934 55129.007610 74902.077740 99968.573855 130311.277446 169403.752240
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 27743.841937 39986.513646 55432.673876 75984.284128 102210.976410 134142.939794 175499.375840
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 26823.454616 39155.149932 54857.566321 75918.035848 102986.713155 136149.977825 179343.154687
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 26460.635969 39054.521414 55219.141176 77049.677926 105280.789290 140053.431837 185560.625787
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 25957.425632 38745.201642 55292.160912 77795.721233 107077.882005 143339.418454 191024.252742
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 25182.863467 38040.738711 54821.749966 77812.479628 107923.929763 145423.058393 194984.358428
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 24392.959954 37290.390971 54267.708521 77698.408738 108584.555911 147262.957814 198637.030212